Documentation

SDLPS Pandemia model

SDL-PAND: Pandemic simulation to test the effectiveness of containment strategies through Cellular Automata and Intelligent Agents using formal languages

The goal of the project is to develop a functional prototype that allows to evaluate pandemic containment alternatives, based on a graphical conceptualization of the models, which represent the modeling hypotheses. The system must allow it to expand by incorporating new working hypotheses and using on two fundamental sources, data on the evolution of the pandemic (data showing the past) and sensor data (mobile phones or other devices) showing a present vision of the situation. This will allow to define forecasting models of the propagation of the pandemic from the analysis of citizens behavior. The model must also be able to expand its semantics and computing capabilities (from, for example, co-simulation) to include models of traffic management, evacuation, etc.

The aim of the project is both to generate a web application to analyze alternatives, and to define a working methodology that allows to establish a common framework for the different specialists, who must collaborate in the definition of complex models. This allows us to understand the hypotheses that govern the models and, from them, to understand the causality that derives from the multidisciplinary knowledge provided by specialists from different areas, who would not otherwise enter this discussion.

The validation of the proposal and the resulting tool will be carried out by the Catalan Institute of Oncology and a team of doctors from the Hospital Clínic de Barcelona.

You can review our infographic here.

Experiments

SDL-PANDv1.7 (Not updated anymore)

First version with simple containment measures. The goal of this experiment is the estimation of the parameters and the initial definition using SDL of the model.

SDL-PANDv1.9 (Current version)

Version that includes the detailed information and the prevision for the different Health Regions in Catalonia.

Discussion

Some studies points that there is an strong correlation between the quarantine strategies and the evolution of the pandemic, see (Manchein et al. 2020).

Methodology

We use Industry 4.0 along with Operations Research and Statistics techniques in this project.

The details of the methodology will be published here in different journals and conferences.

 

Publications

Fonseca i Casas, P.; García i Carrasco, V.; Garcia i Subirana, J. SEIRD COVID-19 Formal Characterization and Model Comparison Validation. Appl. Sci. 2020, 10, 5162.

References

Manchein, Cesar, Eduardo L. Brugnago, Rafael M. da Silva, Carlos F.O. Mendes, and Marcus W. Beims. 2020. “Strong Correlations between Power-Law Growth of COVID-19 in Four Continents and the Inefficiency of Soft Quarantine Strategies.” Chaos 30 (4). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0009454.

Team

 

 Dr. Pau Fonseca

Víctor García

Jorge L. Silva

 

 

Dr. Josep Roma 

Joan Garcia

José Luis Perez

 

 

Dr. Erik Cobo

Dr. Jaume Llopis

Dr. Josep Maria Ribera

 

 

With the support of